Stop Breathing that Air! It's over MY land!

Stop Breathing that Air!  It's over MY Land!

A few days ago a meeting convened at the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) and the world received it's 2015-16 report card, and guess what?  We got a 'B,' which is actually better than the 'C' grade for last year.

So what's this all about?  Well, it's a grade given to the world based on 'international cooperation' and is awarded by the Council of Councils (CoC), a global think tank of experts from leading institutions from 25 different countries.  In their own words, the 

"The Council of Councils is an international initiative to connect leading foreign policy institutes from around the world in a dialogue on issues of global governance and multilateral cooperation."

The meeting itself was very interesting and informative, but I hear you saying, so what? Why does the world need a report card?  And I'd answer, that's a damn good question, and I'll do my best to give you a damn good answer!

Very quickly, these experts and their teams, 'evaluate multi-lateral efforts to address 10 of the world's most pressing challenges,' such as 'advancing global health, countering transnational terrorism' and 'mitigating and adapting to climate change,' and once evaluated each institution gives a grade (ranging A+, A, A- though to F  giving a through range of 5 basic grades in total) for each challenge based on what they have witnessed, discovered or assessed to be the situation over the past year. Each challenge is then ranked (i.e. 1-10, with 10 of least importance) based on their take on the priority of importance to the world relative to the other challenges. The idea being that the governments of the world can then make policy decisions/adjustments based on the findings and we (the world) should then reap the benefits from their collective wisdom and policy changes!  

For the full report and details of each challenge, how they are graded, etc, etc, etc, visit http://www.cfr.org/councilofcouncils/reportcard/#!/  I recommend it.  It's a good read and well worth the time and effort to do so, even if it is a bit droll at times.

Much of the Middle East may become unlivable by 2050.

Not surprisingly, given all the shit going on right now, the top 3 challenges are all to do with combating terrorism and dealing with conflict between states (e.g. Ukrainian conflict) and intra-state (e.g. Syrian civil war).  No surprise there!  A quick glance at the TV news each evening would probably be enough for us to nod our heads in agreement at those particular assessments.  Number 4 on the list of worldwide priorities is the global economy and number 5 is 'mitigating and adapting to climate change,' and it's this challenge I'm going to look at in this blog today.

In last years report the 'climate' was given a 'C' grade so has in effect jumped two grades this year with 'A' mainly because of the 'COP21' Paris Agreement earlier this year and the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) at the end of last year, both of which are deemed (by the Council) to be feather's in the cap of the fight against climate change!  Furthermore, this 'challenge' also took the number 1 ranking in the 'hope for (further) progress' in the next year!

Now, I'm not an expert in climate change (despite a degree in Zoology and post-grad studies in ecology - see photo of macaques below), so far be it for me to disagree with the Council, but it would seem to me that they have vastly underestimated the relative importance of climate change to the world.  Whilst I can fully understand the need to put the fights against terrorism and combating conflicts, even the world economy, ahead of climate change - after all they fill our newspapers and TV screens on a daily basis, maybe even keep us awake at night worrying about ever increasing bills, bomb threats, the safety of our kith and kin, the rate of inflation or how the mortgage will be paid - I still think the Council has got it wrong.  

I would argue that terrorism and global conflicts were placed ahead of climate change based purely on political reasons and peer pressure and not on cold, clear logic, and here's why.  For me it's quite simple, if we don't sort out the huge problems we face associated with climate change then everything else will eventually become irrelevant and redundant. For example, in the Middle East they're fighting over the right to occupy portions of land, or the placement of arbitrary lines on maps, or the right of one religious sect over another to tracts of land that, if climate change continues as it is, will become all but unlivable by 2050 due to rising temperatures that could make daytime temperatures of 40C an everyday occurrence and 50C a summertime norm!  If we think the displacement of peoples from the Middle East is bad now, just wait....!

Just a cursory search taking no more than 5 minutes total yielded a whole bunch of potential environmental horrors - the World Bank says that 1.3bn people are at risk (due to climate change) at a cost to the global economy of ~$158tn; or in the last year alone the US has lost 50% of it's bees at a cost to the US economy of $10-15bn per annum; or the extinction of lake Urmia in Iran due to excessive dam building, broken political promises & poor attempts at modernisation; or the degradation of the Taj Mahal in India due to the proliferation of a mosquito-like insect that breeds excessively in the polluted waters of the Yamuna river and then deposits a green slime on the white walls which is exacerbated further by the darkening stains left by the thick air pollution of New Delhi; or the 200 families buried on Wednesday in Sri Lanka after an inundation caused huge landslides as a result of deforestation; or the fact that for 7 months in a row the global temperature has hit record highs, and what's more it's the 3rd month in a row that the record has been broken by the largest margin ever!!!  It seems climate change is speeding up and that is really scary.  Need I go on?  I've got more, but to be frank it's all a bit depressing and more than a little bit worrying.  All but 2 of those links are happening now.  They are not predictions; they are facts!

These monkeys are from an indigenous sub-species of Japanese macaque that live only on the island of Yakushima,
Japan, where renewable energy provides almost all electricity!

And then I read an essay that said that people are sick of doomsday scenarios regarding climate change and that a different tack is needed to get people to take notice again.  Well, okay then - so let's look at few positive examples to balance the equations a bit! 

Wind turbines are commonplace all over Spain & provide 20% of national power needs.  These ones sit atop mountains
not far from where I live such that I cycle past them quite regularly.

And there are many very encouraging and positive efforts being made around the globe. Many cities are confronting climate change head on by reducing their carbon footprint, divesting money away from fossil fuels and into greener investments, working towards energy sustainability through renewable energy sources, increasing their energy efficiency, encouraging the construction of greener houses/buildings and taking measures to actively reduce ambient pollution (e.g. San Francisco, Bogata, Copenhagen, Melbourne & many more).  

Indeed Portugal is working towards 100% renewable energy consumption and ran last week for 3 days on electricity produced from solar and wind energy, and they are not alone.  Denmark too is also close to zero emissions energy output (42% comes from wind power alone) and across Europe renewable energy sources are contributing more and more each year.

Wind power, however, is known to be a relatively inefficient producer of electricity, but there may now be answer for that too!  In Tunisia Microsoft and a couple of investors from Pakistan are financing the 'Saphonian' machine; a new type of wind turbine that is 70% more efficient than traditional turbines and also far less costly to produce.  The inventor, Anis Aouini, an ex-banker, says the Saphonian is still in the early development stages but if things go as planned then this technological advance could be 'as revolutionary as the invention of the wheel.'

So the world is fighting back but we all need to do our bit if we are going to save this wonderful place we all call home!

Have a tolerant, peaceful and an environmentally friendly day!

Is Muqtada al-Sadr the answer to al-Abadi's prayers?

The political waters in Iraq remain muddied with Prime Minister Haidir al-Abadi still unable to form a government that is acceptable to all parties.  After repeated attempts in April to establish a technocratic government, each of which has spectacularly failed, al-Abadi has called for a brief governmental recess, though quite what this will achieve is unclear.  Meanwhile, frustrations among the people of Iraq with all political factions and religious sects are growing.  In April a sit-in of MP's, largely from the Ahrar bloc and under the guidance of controversial Shi'ia cleric Muqtada al-Sadr, voted to oust the speaker of the house, al-Jabouri and disband the government, but didn't in the end have enough votes for a quorum and al-Jabouri retained his seat.  A subsequent protest in the Green-Zone outside the parliament buildings, again under the guidance of al-Sadr, led to the parliament building being stormed over the past weekend with further calls for al-Abadi to name yet another cabinet re-shuffle.

Protesters outside in the Green Zone.

Muqtada al-Sadr is a name synonymous with all that was bad in Iraq shortly after the 2003 US led invasion.  His violent, but failed attempts to impose an Islamic theocracy on Iraq through his Mehdi army led him to become one of the coalitions deadliest enemies during the insurgency.

Muqtada al-Sadr

Sadr comes from one of Iraq's most prominent religious families that can trace it's ancestry all the way back to the Prophet Muhammad.  His father, Ayatollah Muhammad Sadiq al-Sadr, was one of the leaders of the Hawza, the Shia centre for religious seminaries and scholarship and was eventually gunned down (probably on the orders of Saddam Hussein) along with two of Muqtada's brothers in 1999, after which Muqtada took up the family mantle and began preaching against the US and Israel in his sermons, but nevertheless remained under close scrutiny by Hussein's security forces.

Inside the Parliament building protesters wave Iraqi flags.

During the civil war (2006-2008) his militiamen were involved in some of the worst sectarian violence, but after a split in the Sadrist movement between the armed militia and the social strand of the party and a subsequent political defeat to Maliki's Sunni-led coalition, al-Sadr left for self-imposed exile in Iran.

However, since his return to Iraq in 2011 al-Sadr seems to have altered, if not softened his approach.  The anti-US rhetoric has largely disappeared and he has adopted a less sectarian stance with his Shi'ia militiamen even fighting alongside Sunni tribesman against ISIS.  Whilst many in Iraq still doubt his motives and cannot believe the change of heart he appears to have undergone, the aggressive tones of before seem to have largely evaporated and, as if to highlight the change, he responded to accusations of corruption within his party by removing the offending individuals, including getting rid of own Deputy Prime Minister Baha Araji in order to fully cleanse the Sadrist party of any lingering corruption allegations.

Perhaps an indication that al-Sadr may have undergone a change of heart and tactic is that upon entering the parliament building (this weekend) his Sadrist followers, were joined by Sunni's and Kurd's who waved Iraqi flags, not guns, with al-Sadr urging them not to harm anyone or cause damage of any description.  The same was true outside in the Green Zone where the protests were gun free and largely peaceful, with none of the violence and Sectarian disruption that have been a trademark of Iraqi demonstrations until now.

As to whether al-Sadr can be a unifying force for good in Iraq is yet to be seen.  Many, like al-Maliki, plainly believe 'leopards don't change their spots' and do not trust al-Sadr or his new found sense of Iraqi pride and nationalism.  But al-Sadr himself, seems to want to work with al-Abadi, and unlike Maliki does not want the dissolution of the government, but is pushing the Prime Minister to complete his cabinet re-shuffle and get on with the business of governing.

However, in Erbil, in Kurdish controlled Iraq, they appear to have run out patience with the chaotic turns in Baghdad.  Yesterday Mala Bakhtiar, a leading PUK politician, called for the Iraqi government to 'recognise the Kurdistan people's undisputed right' to a referendum that would allow the Kurds the right to self-determination, a right guaranteed under the Iraqi constitution.

Bakhtiar continued saying, 'the fragmented and indecent governance (in Baghdad) over the past 13 years has hardly been the answer to the plight of the people of Iraq,' with Kurdish President, Masoud Barzani, confirming that he would hold the referendum before the end of 2016.

Similarly Iraq's Sunni minority also doubt the direction of the government with many still suffering anti-Baathist abuse and persecution that is a long-lasting hangover form the days of Saddam Hussein's Baath Party when the Sunni minority ruled the country.  More than a decade later, with many of their religious and political leaders dead, the Sunni's still endure grave human rights abuses (ref: Amnesty Int'l Report; The State of the World's Human Rights 2014/15) often known to be committed by government backed Shi'ia militias, such as the PMF (Popular Mobilisation Forces).  Perhaps as a consequence in some cities, such as Mosul, which prior to the ISIS takeover was a Sunni stronghold, many are now in sympathy with the ISIS cause, something which complicates the situation yet further.

Whilst al-Abadi has paid lip service to the Sunni cause by offering government positions to some high-ranking Sunni's, their roles were in fact paper houses designed to appease rather than shelter the Sunni minority.

This fractious and fraught situation is made more complex still by the demands of the US-led coalition fighting against ISIS, whose priority is the destruction of the terrorist group with Iraqi political security and stability coming a poor second to what they see as the primary cause to hand.  This, combined with falling global oil prices, high unemployment, endemic corruption and a youth bulge, which has left ~40% of the population under the age of 15, all point to the immediate and pressing problems facing al-Abadi.

However, the weak position that al-Abadi finds himself in has been unexpectedly strengthened by al-Sadr's apparent support which may yet prove to be an effective 'counter-balance' against such undemocratic and corrupt forces as Maliki, and could well prove to be a unifying for good in Iraq.  As to whether the coalition forces would accept, and indeed be able to work with someone like al-Sadr in a position of influence is another question, but for the moment he seems to be moving in a positive and peaceful direction, even if it doesn't concur completely with what Western ideas of what a future Iraq should look like.  
.